By Sheeba M. | March 31, 2026
Cannabis Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Major MSOs This Quarter
Cannabis earnings season arrives next week with the majors reporting Q1 2026 results, and investors are watching closely for signs that the post-rescheduling environment is translating into actual financial improvements — not just improved sentiment.
What Green Thumb Needs to Deliver
Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) has consistently been one of the stronger operators, generating positive EBITDA for several quarters now. What investors want to see this quarter is revenue acceleration — not just margin maintenance. Consensus estimates call for $280-290M in revenue, up roughly 12% year-over-year.
The key metric to watch: same-store sales growth. Green Thumb has been expanding its retail footprint, but organic growth at existing locations tells us whether demand is truly expanding or if the company is simply buying market share. If SSG comes in below 5%, that’s a yellow flag.
Curaleaf: The Turnaround Narrative Gets Tested
Curaleaf (CURLF) has been executing an aggressive cost-cutting program under new leadership, and this quarter will test whether the strategy is working. The company has closed underperforming dispensaries, renegotiated cultivation contracts, and streamlined its corporate structure.
Wall Street expects Curaleaf to report roughly $340M in revenue. But the real question is whether adjusted EBITDA finally turns positive. The company has been burning cash, and creditors are watching closely. If EBITDA is still deeply negative, expect the stock to get punished.
The Canadian LP Wildcard
Canopy Growth (CGC) continues its painful restructuring, and investors shouldn’t expect a rescue quarter. The company is transitioning away from Canadian recreational dominance toward US market entry via acquisition — a strategy that will take time to show results. Revenue is expected to decline sequentially as the company exits unprofitable SKUs.
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Sources
- SEC EDGAR – Company filings and earnings guidance
- Bloomberg Intelligence – Cannabis sector analyst estimates