By Sheeba M. | April 21, 2026
4/20 Rally Fades: Why Cannabis Rescheduling Is Stalling — And What It Means for MSO Stocks
The Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) rally on April 20th was real. So was the one for Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF), Trulieve (TCNNF), and virtually every MSO on the board. The December executive order directing the Attorney General to move cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III “in the most expeditious manner” triggered years of pent-up optimism in a single session.
Four months later, that optimism is running into bureaucratic reality.
Where the Rescheduling Process Actually Stands
The Drug Enforcement Administration review is still ongoing. No final rule has been published. A coalition of lawmakers including House Speaker Mike Johnson has formally opposed the move, and legislative attempts to block it are working their way through Congress. The process has entered the interagency review phase — where science, law, and politics collide — and that’s where drug policy goes to die slowly.
A chaotic episode in 2025 didn’t help. DEA Chief Administrative Law Judge John Mulrooney II abruptly cancelled evidentiary hearings just days before they were set to begin, accusing the agency of failing to provide basic witness and evidence lists. That procedural collapse added months of delay.
The market is now pricing in a longer timeline, and the GTBIF and CURLF valuations reflect that uncertainty — despite strong Q1 operational results across the sector.
The 280E Tax Clock Is What Actually Matters
Here’s the insider read: the tradeable catalyst isn’t the rescheduling announcement — it’s the IRC Section 280E relief. Currently, cannabis companies cannot deduct normal business expenses because the IRS treats them like drug traffickers. Moving to Schedule III ends that. For Curaleaf (CURLF) and Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF), 280E relief alone could add $40–60M annually to pre-tax income. That’s the number institutional investors are quietly modeling.
Trulieve (TCNNF) opened a new Tallahassee dispensary on April 20 — a symbolic timing play if there ever was one. The company’s Florida-heavy footprint is particularly exposed to the state’s adult-use market momentum. Trulieve’s May 7 earnings call will be a key near-term catalyst for TCNNF watchers.
What Smart Money Is Doing Right Now
Institutional MSO exposure via MSOS ETF remains the cleanest play for retail investors who want diversified exposure without single-company risk. The ETF has seen consistent inflows as advisors reposition client portfolios ahead of what they believe is an inevitable — if delayed — regulatory outcome.
The near-term risk is legislative: if a coalition successfully blocks the rulemaking, expect a 10–15% haircut across the space within 48 hours of confirmation. The upside scenario — clean rescheduling with 280E relief — could spark a once-in-a-cycle re-rating for operators with clean balance sheets.
Bottom Line
Hold Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) and Curaleaf (CURLF) on the stall. Accumulate Trulieve (TCNNF) ahead of May 7. Watch the Senate markup calendar for any 280E-specific language — that’s the signal that will tell you whether the inside track is real or theater.
Sources
- INN – Cannabis Market Transition: 4/20 Reality Check — Cannabis stocks saw largest single-day gains in years following December executive order
- CNBC – Trump’s Psychedelics Executive Order — Cannabis rescheduling stalled, DEA review ongoing
- Trulieve PR – New Tallahassee Dispensary — Leon County location opened April 20
Track cannabis stocks with the Weedstock Real-Time Tracker